The world has changed a lot in the past 100 days, with Japan being somewhat brought to its knees by a freak combination of natural and nuclear disasters, and the Arab world being thrown into upheaval. While Japan has managed to control its ongoing nuclear problems (which may or may not have been seriously blown out of proportion by Western media), the Arab world, specifically Libya, is still facing serious issues. The Toronto Star describes the Arab uprising surviving 100 days and still going strong. Libya is in the midst of civil war with Western aerial military intervention, while Yemen, Bahrain and Syria have seen public protests and deaths of civilians.
The US has led the Western aerial intervention (now led by NATO, but with the US still in a leading role) in Libya, despite widespread foreign and local (US) concerns about military action against another Muslim country, and this is strongly a result of Libyan opposition, Arab League and international pressure for supporting the anti-Muamar Gadhafi rebels. What it shows is that for all the talk about US imperialism or conversely, the decline of the US, Europe is still not prepared or not willing to step up. I've never been a strong supporter of the US but this is one instance where it does not deserve the bulk of criticisms for its military role. On the other hand, there have been a slew of voices saying that this is all a sleigh of hand done by the US and Western powers, that instead of having been dragged kicking and screaming, the US actually orchestrated it this way, but for now, I'm going to say it sounds mostly like conspiracy theory.

The deck of this article below the headline says it all. As Japan recovers from its devastating natural disasters and civil war continues in Libya, West Africa, specifically the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire) is on the brink of civil war itself. The tensions stem from the results of last November's presidential elections, in which the incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo declared his victory despite supposedly losing. The alleged winner, opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, has continued his claim for the presidency and forces loyal to him have started fighting with Gbagbo's troops. The nation endured a savage civil war, one of several in West Africa at that time, during the earlier part of the last decade and hasn't really recovered from it. If war was to break out again, it would be devastating and would require intervention from West African, African or even the international community.

Spare a thought for the Irish

The Celtic Tiger is no more, brought down stunningly by the 2008 global crisis. All those years of strong economic growth and sky-high housing and building prices and new construction was halted and ended, resulting in a crisis that many of Ireland's people still seem to be having difficulties understanding and getting over. Michael Lewis, Vanity Fair writer and author of The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine and The Blind Side, wrote a lengthy piece that examines the Irish crisis. It's a sad story, with Lewis showing a sympathetic side whilst also describing in definite detail how the Irish helped cause their nation's economy to implode. Unlike the US and the rampant greed and duplicity behind its notorious subprime mortgage scheme that led to the global crisis, the Irish spending was less cynical and driven by more genuine optimism. Case in point, the Irish bank executives who benefited greatly from the rise in housing purchases invested in their own firms' bonds and stocks. This isn't the same as the heads of major banks and financial institutions in the US who walked away from the crisis chastened but with tons of cash. If there are any bankers in the world who deserves a little sympathy, it should be the Irish ones. But the biggest lesson in the article is how people who saw the housing boom for what it really was and who actually spoke out were ridiculed and derided. In the end, they were right but rightly so, there's no schaudenfraude.

Arab protests in Libya

The upheavals in the Arab world have spread to Libya, with little signs of slowing down. Libya's Muammar Gaddhafi has lived up to his previously fading mad dictator reputation by having his forces gun down almost 100 protesters, the most violent state reaction in all the countries that have seen people protests against their leaders. It seems fitting that Libya should have mass protests because for far too long, Gaddhafi has stayed in power, even if he's mellowed a bit recently, and made his country a pariah. He is also one of the few, or only, African dictators in power. Bahrain, a tiny, oil-rich country in the Gulf coast, has also experienced street protests against an unpopular government, with a handful of protesters having been killed so far.

See who else is in trouble in the Arab region here. The full article takes a good look at the problems and challenges with the possible overthrow of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak for the US. One of the main points is that revolutions aren't often predictable and that sometimes what comes after is worse, no matter how bad the existing regime/dictator was, with the Iranian Revolution in 1979 being a key example.

What's up with China's relationship and role in Africa? Well, it's growing and going beyond just business, as this post and its assorted links have a more nuanced take on this issue. Going beyond the usual cries of China as a new colonizer, the linked articles, specifically a detailed report by an NGO, emphasize African nations must take more responsibility on their own part to be more accountable and assertive.

Sometime soon, Egypt's longtime leader Hosni Mubarak is probably going to step down. Things have escalated after over a week of anti-Mubarak protests in Egypt despite Mubarak trying to appease the protesters, though only in offering small, gradual steps as opposed to just stepping down right away. After revamping his Cabinet last week, Mubarak has offered to leave power in September but this is still too long for many of his citizens. However, Mubarak's supporters have stepped into the fray now, engaging in clashes with anti-Mubarak protesters that have resulted in deaths. This ongoing situation has ramifications extending beyond the country, from the possibility of continuing the recent spread of people revolutions in the Arab world, to how engaged the US should be especially given Mubarak is a staunch ally and even to how much influence people in China could take from it, prompting the authorities there to block coverage on Egypt.

First Tunisia, now Egypt and Jordan. The Arab world seems to be going through a really tumultuous moment as a wave of public protests have broken out in those countries against the respective rulers. Egypt has taken the protests, in which 26 have died so far, so seriously that it actually "shut down" the Internet, something that has never been done before.

Egypt's PM Hosni Mubarak, the very person who the protesters want to see step down, also dismissed his Cabinet and defended his security forces' heavyhanded reaction. Mubarak is an elected ruler but under his 30-year rule, he has clamped down on media and opposition parties, tortured dissidents, and generally engineered Egypt's supposed democratic system to ensure his continual reign. Yet he has also overseen a tenuous kind of peace with Israel and has steered Egypt into the US geopolitical camp, so it's not surprising that the US leadership, specifically Vice-President Joe Biden came out and backed him.

No surprise happened with the South Sudan secession vote. The South is poised to break away from Sudan as most of the votes counted overwhelmingly indicate a desire for independence. There will be a lot of challenges and while euphoria might be felt now, one wonders how most people in that region will feel later on down the line, after formal independence begins in July.

In a first, an Arab strongman was toppled by his people. Tunisia's longtime leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali hightailed it out of his country earlier this week after thousands of Tunisians marched demanding his ouster. He had earlier said he would continue his term but promised to step down in 2014. It is surprising because Tunisia is a rather stable country and Ben Ali's reign was kind of benign compared to other Arab and Middle East dictators, but he was still a dictator, jailing and torturing human rights activists and limiting free speech. However it wasn't these issues but anger over unemployment and rising prices that directly sparked these protests. Still, there must have been a strong amount of frustration at the seemingly permanent reign of their dictatorial leader among much of society that fueled their dissatisfaction over economic problems.

The Southern Sudan referendum has gotten underway and it is highly likely that the world will see a new nation this year. There may have been a few hiccups but that doesn't seem to be hindering many people in this war-weary and undeveloped, not even underdeveloped, region.

Shocking news today from the US as a congresswoman was shot in plain sight in an Arizona supermarket while 6 others were killed. She was shot in the head while she was holding a public meet at the supermarket. This is really crazy stuff, shocking and sad. That it happened in Arizona is striking, given the tense and controversial recent politics in that state concerning immigration laws. It also reminded me of the shooting of a politician in Taiwan last November.

Another revealing look into how microlending got out of hand in India. Still, the idea itself still seems sound, it looks more that some lenders got too greedy and their intentions were mainly self-enrichment and profit rather than helping the poor.
An interesting excerpt:

Overlending in Andhra Pradesh calls to mind the U.S. subprime crisis, says Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder, director of corporate risk at International Finance Corp. in Washington, which invests in microlenders. “Subprime lending was initially seen as extending homeownership to poorer people, doing good,” Shyam-Sunder says. As the industry expanded, making a profit became more important to some lenders, she says.

China's recently announced first-ever stealth fighter has stirred up some alarm in the West. However, the opinions are mixed on how truly effective or worrying this development is supposed to be. It's a good development for China, as long as it's not for any offensive means. Why should only the US and Russia have stealth fighters?

A new nation may be born soon in Africa. The Southern part of Sudan will vote in a referendum between Jan 9 and 15 whether to split from Sudan and form a new nation or stay with Sudan. CNN has an extensive article that details the current situation, the historical background, and challenges.
If the area chooses independence, it will be a precarious state of affairs.

Microlending is going through some tough times as it's been the subject of harsh criticism from politicians and activists. Grameen Bank, the institution that won its founder Mohammed Yunus a Nobel Prize, is even under investigation for alleged tax evasion regarding US$100 million. In other areas like India, microlending institutions have been said to be trapping borrowers into a cycle of debt as instead of "lifting themselves" out of poverty, they just keep borrowing constantly. This is really unfortunate as it seemed like a good concept. Yet, I feel that the problems described in this article about microlending aren't problems with microlending itself but problems with human faults such as greed and over-ambitiousness. In effect, these faults are also those that have plagued regular banking or financial institutions elsewhere- trapping borrowers into a cycle of poverty seems familiar.

To prove that there's always no shortage of interesting little conflicts around the world that most of us don't really know about, here's a good description of the problem in Western Sahara, a territory in North Africa that has been occupied by neighboring Morocco since 1975. While the main focus is on yet another revelation by WikiLeaks about US international affairs, this post gives a decent overview of what basically amounts to colonization, something the writer says in the 2nd to last paragraph. Morocco is ironically one of the more liberal and stable Muslim and North Africa states, unlike sketchy Libya or Egypt or Saudi Arabia, yet what its actions in the Western Sahara go beyond what any of those other states have done.

Former NY Times foreign correspondent Howard French writes a sad commentary on the decline of the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire). The beleaguered West African country, known for being Dider Drogba's homeland, cocoa and a civil war that raged through the 90s, was in the news recently for its electoral problems. Defeated incumbent Laurent Gbagbo refused to accept his loss in the presidential election and claims the results are void. What is especially noteworthy in French's article is his comparison between Ivory Coast and Asian countries, which in the past actually favored the African country. It is hard to believe now that back in the 60s and 70s, West African countries like Ivory Coast were wealthier than China and Malaysia and even South Korea in terms of GDP per capita. While those Asian countries have gone on and become richer and more modern, countries like Ivory Coast seem to have regressed. Still, the instant and critical response of West African and African bodies, as well as the US, to the current power-grab is a sign of hope.

The Prime Minister of an actual country, albeit a tiny and recent one (independent since 2008), is the head of a "mafia-like" smuggling and human organ ring, according to a Guardian story citing a Council of Europe report on organized crime. That's right, Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi is "identified as the boss of a network that began operating criminal rackets in the runup to the 1999 Kosovo war." The report says that a "handful" of Serbs were killed for their organs by this criminal group. This network still holds sway over the country's government. This has to be a new low for a politician in modern times, at least since Liberia's Charles Taylor of the 1990s. While the Serbs, at that time Kosovo was a part of Serbia, did commit significant barbarities including mass killings, little attention was paid on Kosovan fighters who also did some nasty stuff of their own. This is the latest revelation about turmoil and violence in the Balkan region that made up the former Yugoslav Republic. Meanwhile, Kosovo's government denies the allegations.

Here's an interesting story of a Russian self-styled militia group who waged war against police in a remote region near China. They did this because of alleged brutality and corruption amongst police, including against the members of the group. It's quite a crazy and tragic story but they had the support of many members of the public.

In a startling attack yesterday, North Korea bombarded a South Korean island, killing 2 Marines and 2 civilians, raising significant fears of a war. Unlike their previous provocations, this was a direct attack on South Korean soil, and may cause the South to retaliate directly. On the other hand, the sinking of a South Korean warship with the death of 46 crewmen by most presumably, North Korea didn't cause war to break out so if the North backs down then maybe Seoul will not try to push things. This is unfortunate because North Korea seems to have this trend of making threats and carrying out provocations a lot, whether to get attention or aid. Even worse, is that in the past they've carried out much deadlier attacks, even on civilian targets, and Seoul and the West have been reluctant to do much. The North is a true rogue regime, that doesn't care about other countries or its own people, and it's very unfortunate that it has remained in power until now.

UNESCO seems to have come to its sense with this move, but they shouldn't have had a prize named after this dictator in the first place. Equatorial Guinea's leader Obiang has had a lot of human rights abuses happen under his reign, as quite a few non-fiction books on Africa have mentioned him in detail. Would they let Saddam Hussein or Robert Mugabe fund prizes?

The Democratic Republic of Congo has seen a lot of tragedy since what seems like ... forever, and the bad news doesn't seem to cease. Mass rapes has been in the Western limelight recently, but it remains to be seen what action will be taken. It's been deemed as a weapon of war, which seems to be quite obvious, and the sad thing is these aren't new.

In a bold gesture, the Nobel Committee awarded Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Peace Prize. Liu, who helped draft Charter 08, a manifesto which advocates political reform and human rights that was signed by thousands of Chinese intellectuals and activists, is currently imprisoned as part of an 11-year term while his wife is under house arrest. Understadably this infuriated China, but it's also gotten some Chinese upset and brought on some criticism from commentators. Of course, it's also an opportunity for Chinese to mock their government. However, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made some waves of his own with a surprising call for reform earlier this week. One wonders whether it's genuine or an attempt to mitigate global anger and criticism of China.

The notorious Lord's Resistance Army, the rebel group run by a crazed "Christian" lunatic who kidnaps children as soldiers and sex slaves in Uganda, may be down but it's not out. Unfortunately its dispersed forces have spread to surrounding countries, including Southern Sudan. This area will go to the polls in a referendum to determine whether they'll secede from Sudan and form a new nation. Incidentally, US President Barack Obama warned Sudan's leaders Friday to let the process go along smoothly. Instability and poverty are the main problems, and the first factor is why the LRA can affect proceedings.

There's a storm brewing within India and it's been getting stronger in recent years. No, not Kashmir, but a rejuvenated Maoist Communist insurgency that has seen over 10,000 killed in the past 10 years and compelled the PM Manmohan Singh to send in 2009 "almost 100,000 new paramilitary troops and police to contain" the rebels. Read on in this Foreign Policy piece exploring this civil insurgency driven by socioeconomic inequality and resource-rich but poor areas. If nothing else, at least you'll learn of such a thing as a reporter carrying a gun, 90-year-old underground fires still burning on, and a provincial chief minister who allegedly stole US$1 billion from the state.

Thought to be on the decline, the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda has killed about 2,500 people and abducted almost 700 children in the past 18 months, recently-released human rights reports have highlighted. Some interesting possible scenarios are mentioned, such as the US lending intelligence support, having an international or regional armed force go after LRA leader Joseph Kony and that the LRA might be looking for support from Sudan. Also interesting is the theory that the LRA continues to kill and terrorize civilians simply to maintain itself, "as a way to socialize and indoctrinate their soldiers." The LRA is a brutal rebel group and with not even a pretense of any ideological or territorial goals but killing and kidnapping children, the sooner regional authorities can cooperate to wipe them out, the better.

Three years after the great global financial crisis, what's changed? According to this Guardian opinion piece, not that much. Of course, banks are much more cautious and less free-spending than before, but the overall system remains the same. Would another crisis happen again in the future if no big changes are made to our global financial system, or would the current caution be enough to ensure eternal security? As China and Asia look set to continue their growth and take up a greater role through more local consumption and demand, some might be tempted to think that ensures a rosy future and eliminates the need for any radical rethink in the global economic system. We'll see.

Spain's Catalonia region made headlines earlier this week for officially banning bullfighting from 2012. This act goes beyond just boosting animal rights activists but is a form of defiance towards Spain's central government. This Guardian piece gives an interesting description of the region and its disdain for its own country, with some Catalans even going so far as to hope for a Spanish loss in the World Cup final. It should be remembered that Spain's victory in that final was heralded by some media figures as something to unite a nation that is at odds with itself. This article shows that it'll take more than a World Cup to overcome Catalanonia's sense of separation.

Ghana might be in store for some better times, economically speaking, as production of a large offshore oil field is set to start in 6 months' time but already there are some worrying signs ("illicit capital flight") that the oil bonanza may not benefit the nation as much as expected as the LRB blog post linked above talks about possibly shady offshore ownership.

A leak of over 90,000 internal documents seemingly confirms what many assume in the past few years- that the Afghanistan war is getting worse, not better. Among the negative events revealed in the papers - a secret U.S. task force dedicated to hunting down top Taliban commanders, attacks by Western allies that have killed hundreds of civilians and concrete signs of Pakistan "fueling" the Taliban insurgency, the latter being something that doesn't come as a surprise given the suspicions and strong criticism issued by the U.S. over the years. Read here for how the leak took place, a major event in itself.

South Korea finally came out and stated what seemed to be quite obvious, that the North torpedoed and sank their warship 2 months ago. Now, South Korea is going to take the case to the U.N. and try to take hard action against the North such as imposing unilateral sanctions. The hard part is, that short of some sort of military action or declaring war, there is nothing much the South can do. North Korea is already in such a wretched state, being one of the most isolated nations, if not the most, in the world and it's led by a regime headed by a dictator who doesn't seem to give a damn about his people's welfare. Another factor constricting the South is the North's patron China is very reluctant to accede to any strong actions against Pyongyang. This apparently perplexes the South who feel that their relations with China have been improving, but for Beijing, they probably see the North as being one of the few nations who will side with them no matter what and even upholding good relations with the South, who are an American ally, won't be enough to change that.
However, if China wants to maintain or build up its status as a world power, they need to step up geopolitically and exercise leadership in matters that aren't just about economics and trade such as this crisis between two of their closest neighbors.

After all the fears and worries, the World Cup will soon start in South Africa. In a rather upbeat article, the BBC looks at how Africa managed to finally get this World Cup.

Two leading developing nations have experienced significant problems that raise the deep troubles in their societies, whether it's raced-based or socio-economic.


The killing of a white supremacist leader in South Africa has stirred up tremendous anger and fears of racist violence, providing a stark illustration that racist tensions have still not been entirely eliminated in this diverse but troubled nation.

Speaking about troubled nation, Thailand has been plagued by a continuous large-scale demonstration by opposition "Red Shirt" supporters in the capital that has led to violence and deaths. The situation is tense as the protests show no signs of abating and the protesters appear to have received some sort of support from the military head who has called for parliament to be dissolved. This ongoing protest, the latest in a series of protests from different sides over the past few years, is the result of deep fissures in the country between generally speaking, its rural and lower-income peoples and urban, middle and upper-classes.

The Atlantic's Robert D. Kaplan's latest piece is on the top American general in Afghanistan and why he thinks the country is still salvageable. Stanley McChrystal, a special forces commander who previously served in Iraq with an impressive record, seems to really believe in the possibility of victory, that accomplishing key objectives, such as holding on to areas "where the water and the roads are," and staying for the long-term, will help bring peace and defeat the Taliban. Kaplan, a renowned world affairs expert who has written many books on foreign nations including on Afghanistan and the famous essay The Coming Anarchy, writes some surprising things about Afghanistan, such as its coherent sense of nationalism and the desire of its people for modernity and stability. Not surprisingly, Afghan leader Hamid Karzai is described as weak and incompetent, allowing corruption to thrive due to his dependence on and empowerment of warlords. The article also shows the attempts by the U.S. military to boost the competency of the Afghan military through fostering U.S.-Afghan teamwork and letting the Afghans undertake operations for themselves (a novel concept, I'm sure).

In the form of a book review, Joshua Kurlantzick explains why Thailand is on the verge of possible breakup. He explores the basic conflict between the "Reds" and "Yellows," the mass groups of protesters who respectively, basically support and oppose deposed former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Kurlantzick also mentions the growing Islamic insurgency in the southern provinces, who are culturally and religion-wise distinct from the rest of the country. The article does well to explain the nuances of the Red-Yellow division, outlining the shortcomings and wrongdoings in both sides. In the end, this deep chasm, based on socio-economic and urban-rural fissures, may prove too much for the nation to survive, Kurlantzick says in a bleak prognosis.

This Foreign Policy article makes a controversial argument that Africa's wars
are unstoppable, because they're not about fighting for freedom or against oppression anymore, but only for plunder, women and territory. Gone are the great rebel leaders of the past such as southern Sudan's John Garang and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni, instead there are only rapacious and vicious warlords such as the LRA's Joseph Kony in Uganda whose supposedly Christian militia has indulged in rape, child capture and mutilation. The article is compelling though it has a sort of simplistic and sensationalistic style.

Is this world full of war? This photo essay from Foreign Policy magazine shows that
this is an affirmative, at least for 33 places. The usual suspects, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, the DR Congo, formerly Zaire, and the Central Caucasus are covered, but others like Thailand and Nepal make the cut as well. Insurgencies in Iran and India Kashmir are also included. On the other hand, it is surprising to see Peru and Northern Ireland mentioned, which though they have had long-running civil conflicts, seem to be undergoing periods of relative peace.
There are a lot of stunning pictures, see photo 17, and the captions provide brief but detailed info.

Private armies or militias are still in vogue in the Philippines, as this NY Times piece shows with a little political family feud. While these feuds mostly arise from political battles, these conflicts sometimes grow to include Muslim insurgents. The article suggests that the Arroyo government is not too serious about disbanding these private militias, especially as allies of Arroyo use them. It is a pity, especially in light of the massacre of all those journalists and civilians in Nov.

The country of Niger, located in West Africa, suffered a coup last Thursday that removed the country's president Mamadou Tandja from power. The overthrow was conducted by military officers and is seen as a favorable event by some in the country, including by an opposition leader. This is mainly due to Tandja's changing of constitutional rules to allow him to serve beyond his legal term limit. This audacious move even led to condemnation from its fellow West African nations as it was suspended from Ecowas (Economic Community Of West African States).
It remains to be seen how the military junta that has taken over will react in the coming days and months.

Newsweek has an interview with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who now serves as the U.N. special envoy to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It's not too long but one of the best remarks is when Obasanjo is asked on China's "colonization" of Africa. First he directly criticizes the use of the term, then he says "We regard America and Europe as old friends. We keep old friends but we make new friends in Japan, India, and China."
New friends and old friends indeed. A rather smart way of describing relations with the West and Asia in a positive manner without showing any preference, if you ask me.

A perfect graphical representation of why India still lags significantly behind China, much less the developed world. This is a photo essay of child laborers working in the capital city New Delhi on construction sites. The city is undergoing a wave of construction for the Commonwealth Games in October and desperate contractors are using children to finish the sites on time. They work alongside their parents who are also laborers, but still a wretched and disturbing situation nevertheless.

Kind of late, but this piece by Howard French on the Congo war and the role of Rwanda is a very eye-opening read. French reviews three 2009 books on the Congo crisis, that provide a more nuanced and informative explanation of the fighting and instability in that troubled Central African country.

A troubling look into the problems at diamond mines in Zimbabwe, where violence, rape and extortion are alleged to have been committed by government forces to take control of the mining. While attempts have been made by diamond companies to refuse purchasing diamonds directly from these mines, smugglers are able to take them across the borders to neighboring countries like Mozambique and sell them illegally and profitably.

A new report by advocacy group Global Witness states that violence, rapes and forced displacement of hundreds of thousands in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is linked to multinational mining companies. An area rich in minerals and other natural resources, violence, poverty and disaster have been an unavoidable fate of many of its locals.
Here's a good summary on the report on the HuffPost.

Also on the HuffPost, a list of 10 top stories to watch for in Africa.

Paul Krugman sees a bleak immediate future for the U.S. economy-wise in this piece. As he said, blips happen even in the worst economic times, because when economic activity dropped as deeply as it did last year, then a little jump or improvement is not surprising. The question is how sustainable it can be, and my feeling is it's not. It's funny when everytime there is some slight rise, or a decline that is not as deep as expected in the U.S., such as with unemployment figures or holiday shopping, there are industry pundits and media reports that highlight optimism, as if they expect things will return to normal very soon.

The visit by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to meet Syrian leader Bashar Assad in Damascus a little over 2 weeks ago- sign of great relations between the two neighbors or an indication of how strong and menacing Syria still is to Lebanon, as Michael Totten and this Weekly Standard piece say.

Are coups still being done anywhere?
Well yes, in Africa, there've been a few in the past year in Guinea, Madagascar and Mauritania.
U.S. President Barack Obama recently announced a cessation in benefits to several of these states as punishment for their illegal and unconstitutional transition in power.

Guinea, situated in West Africa just north of major 90s troublespots Sierra Leone and Liberia, is in a particularly precarious state, after infighting among coup leaders earlier this month, resulted in the coup leader to be shot and seriously wounded.

Southern Sudan, one of the world's most underdeveloped areas, will hold a referendum in 2011 to decide if it will break away from Sudan to form a new nation. This is significant because this is the culmination of long-time tensions between the North and South, with (at the risk of simplifying the state of affairs) the former's people being mostly Arabic-speaking and Muslim, and the latter being mostly non-Muslim. The area has experienced heavy violence and severe humanitarian troubles, raising fears from some who feel this is part of a plot to undermine the fragile peace in the region and intensify conflicts amongst the people in the South with each other.

The South fought a bitter and devastating war with the Sudanese government that lasted over 20 years (from the early eighties to 2005) and killed over a million people. The two sides signed an agreement that has continued till the present, but with one of the conditions being a referendum for secession. It will be tough if the referendum actually succeeds, given the humanitarian problems and violence, so any fledgling South Sudan state will have its work cut out.

Dubai's debt extension request, basically an admission that they can't pay up their debts now, really put a scare on the world and showed just how badly this former global darling has fallen. While the global economy has seemed to have overcome this shock, Dubai's troubles are likely to continue further. Its ruler, with his great, extravagant vision, still seems defiant. Some also believe that this may be the first in a series of national and corporate debt crises worldwide.

Great news in Somalia as a Canadian freelance journalist was just released after over a year in captivity by an armed militia. A ransom was paid and groups like Reporters without Borders had been working to get her release for a long time. The news seemed really bleak back in August, with rumors of her even having been raped and impregnated. It's good that this didn't happen, at least the pregnancy part, but she did claim to have been tortured.

On the other hand, at least 18 journalists experienced a gory fate in the Philippines, after they were killed after being in a convoy with over 50 persons who were stopped, captured and mostly executed by armed militiamen, allegedly hired by a politician. This has to be one of the worst events involving journalists, maybe even unprecedented in modern times. Imagine if this had happened to American journalists, say in Iraq for example, the international outcry would have been even greater.

It's fitting that while I've been dormant on this blog these past two months, tensions have become worse in Iraq, Afghanistan and even East Asia with signs of widening differences involving the U.S., Japan, China and East and Southeast Asia in general.

First, while fighting has continued in Afghanistan and the situation has become so serious that the U.S. military's top leadership is calling for more troops, Asia Times has a crazy article about foreign helicopters ferrying Taliban troops around. The reason: "According to Rahim Rahimi, a professor at Balkh University, America and the United Kingdom are trying to keep all of Afghanistan insecure, so that people feel the need for the foreign forces."

Meanwhile Iraq saw some massive blasts in Baghdad that have come after a relatively long period of relative calm.

As the world struggles to overcome this ongoing economic crisis, China continues to get a lot of attention, or I might say hype, especially over its possible ability to help lead the world economy out of this crisis. It is no exaggeration to say that some have already anointed China as the next superpower, ready to pass the U.S. and take up a leading position in the world equivalent to its historical and cultural standing. Yet as always, it's good to be cautious about China, as these articles from Time magazine show. One asks if China can really "save the world?" while the other reminds people that nothing can be taken for granted about the future.

The ongoing global economic crisis is notable in that developed nations such as the U.S. and big powers like China have been seriously affected. Africa itself is also being affected, especially from the reduction or complete elimination of funding from the developed world. This article from Time magazine (July 13 edition) examines this situation. As a World Bank economist says in the article, people in the West may suffer from the recession, but for people in Africa, it can literally be a matter of life and death. On the other hand, this lack of aid money may be a good thing, for people like Dambisa Moyo, author of Dead Aid, who argues vociferously about the detrimental effect of aid on African governments.
This other piece, also from Time`s July 13 edition, looks at Liberia and shows some good things happening, a far cry from its wartorn 90s. Yet the familiar problems of violence, albeit crimes and not conflicts or all-out war, and corruption are afflicting this nation. But overall, Liberia has come a long way from its recent past and its president, Ms. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, seems like the real deal, so maybe the country will be able to keep on progressing.

I recently read Descent into Chaos, which told the compelling story of how Afghanistan and Pakistan have become so turbulent ever since 2001. It's written by Ahmed Rashid, a renowned Pakistani journalist, and he writes a detailed article in the NY Review of Books on the same issue. Specifically he explains how fundamentalists militants, especially the Taliban, grew to become such a menace and the extent of their power that has seen their influence spread from the NW frontier 'badlands' to deep into Pakistan. From both the book and this article, I can't help thinking that Pakistan is in very deep and dire troubles. And this does not bode well for Afghanistan's stability and security.

This interactive map of China highlights the nation's diversity by showing where the major ethnic minorities live and brief details. Clearly relations between the majority Han and some minorities have been quite negative, especially with the Xinjiang problems this past week and with Tibet.
Despite the number of these minorities, and their large numbers, such as the Zhuang being 15 million-strong, the Han number over 1 billion, making up at least 90 percent of China's population.

That crazy's, sorry I meant Ahmadinejad, win in Iran has been causing a lot of turmoil, within his country and in the U.S. There's been allegations of fixed elections, especially from his main opponent's supporters who have been very worked up over the result. Yet Newsweek here gives a good explanation for why it happened. Sure, a lot of the younger, more educated, urban folk may have been for Mousavi but what about the rest of the society- the rural people, the working class, etc? This is why it's never good to gauge an election by just focusing on a specific sector of society.
As the Newsweek piece says, this may be great news for Israel's leader who can continue to use Ahmadinejad as a significant means to justify an aggressive stance toward Iran and obstruct American attempts to improve relations with Iran.

One of the biggest stories of late is North Korea's continuous saber-rattling, or should it be missile-rattling, provocations that have raised tensions in neighboring countries, even supposed ally China and the U.S. Its recent sentencing of 2 U.S. journalists to 12 years for spying because they were caught doing a story just within North Korean territory seems tremendously daring, like if they're daring the U.S. to fight. It might be a sign of desperation, especially with South Korea's refusal to be taken advantage of by them in recent years and with the leader's poor health including an alleged stroke. One thing, is that this is one of the worst, if not the, and most unjust regimes in the world. Asia Times has a whole bunch of insightful articles here.
To be honest, one wonders if the best thing the rest of the world can do is call the North's bluff and wait for Pyongyang to actually start a war. The South's military superiority along with American support and possibly Japan as well, would easily defeat North Korea and cause an overthrow of their regime.

Violence in Congo taking a big toll, not on human lives, infrastructure and crops, but also eco-system and wildlife like in this lake.

The UK's foreign secretary openly called China an "indispensable superpower" and says China will definitely join the U.S. as one of the two biggest powers in the world, in an interview with The Guardian. It's a bit remarkable for someone of his status to be so frank about China and illustrates the regard and power that China possesses now. The article includes some very interesting comments by David Miliband, especially that Europe may become a third power, thus implying that Europe cannot surpass China on the world stage, and that Europe has not been strategic enough in dealing with China.

So it ends, presumably, for the civil war between the Sri Lanka government and the Tamil Tigers rebels. Searches are on for the rebel leader while mop-up operations are continuing. Unfortunately the end of the war doesn't mean an end to the tensions in that country, or even worldwide. The rebels may decide to continue as a purely guerilla outfit, the government may forego reconciliation efforts and instead disregard human rights and the law in dealing with the Tamil minority, and diaspora worldwide may continue quarrels and even violence, as has possibly happened in Toronto.

The Sri Lanka civil war is probably near to seeing an end, though not without significant human/ civilian tragedies. As the government army closes in on the remaining rebel territory, the rebels and many civilians are becoming squeezed into an ever-shrinking space, which puts more civilians in the line of fire from government bombardment. Things are getting so dire that foreign countries, like the UK and France, and bodies have been sending ministers and envoys to demand a ceasefire.
It's hard to put all the blame on any one side as the rebels don't want to surrender and the government refuses to a ceasefire. The tragedy is not getting too much coverage as it should, though we've definitely selected and run articles on it.

An interesting look at Rwanda's ambitious attempts to modernise, build its economy and try to be the Singapore of Africa. The government sure has a lot of high-powered U.S. corporate friends, as well as Rick Warren, author of The Purpose-Driven Life. Nevertheless it still is a very poor country, which only makes its disciplined, (relatively) tidy and rather corruption-free society even more admirable. One only hopes that this isn't accomplished with too much authoritarian measures in place.

FT's new China blog

Financial Times' new China blog appears to have some very spot-on and sharp outlooks of China, such as the inadequacy of China's reaction to the financial crisis which articulates some shortcomings of China's economy and its stimulus package. Other posts explain why the threat of social unrest from displaced workers is not so significant and warn against the alluring vision of a gigantic Chinese consumer market.

On the "torture" allegations of the U.S.
Good point and illustrates the rampant hypocrisy of the dressing up of American interrogation techniques.
Of course, I think that it's hard to believe that any intelligence agency or military never uses torture in conducting interrogations on prisoners.

Naval might rendered powerless by pirates

About the pirate menace off the coast of Somalia which has been a major issue in the past year, Vanity Fair carries a good piece on the ordeal of the capture of a French luxury sailboat. Despite the 'happy' ending, the story vividly shows how modern naval power is made impotent by these pirates.
Utilizing a range of vessels, helicopters, planes, commandoes, frogmen and "hundreds of amphibious assault troops", all the French navy could do was arrange for a US$2.15 million ransom in exchange for the successful release of the captured ship's crew, and the eventual capture of a handful of the pirate gang. The main reason for the impotence of the French navy was of course, the reluctance to risk the lives of the hostages, as well as financial factors for the ship's company.
Then the not-so-inconsequential matter of the status of Somalia as a failed nation state with no national sovereign control or rule of law hence, no need to adhere to or fear international laws or sanctions, and by extension Puntland, the pirate haven which was formerly a part of Somalia, also contribute to the pirates' ability to act with such impunity.

With the announcement this past week of a new U.S. strategy on Afghanistan which involves sending 21,000 more troops, there's a feeling among some observers that Afghanistan is looking more like a futile cause, no longer the just war that was in contrast to Iraq. Some feel that there is no real possibility of success in Afghanistan, that things are too messed up that it's even turning into a Vietnam, ironically a comparison that used to be made of the Iraq occupation.
This NATO advisor/ social worker in Afghanistan thinks otherwise, providing a good overview of why setting the goals lower will hurt Afghanistan as well as the success of the U.S. mission.

The fact that the situation there is not very good isn't surprising because it's been worsening for a while, as others including British officers have warned that it could take many years, even decades to make that country stable. What is surprising, and unreasonable is when some will use this set of problems to justify ending the Afghanistan campaign because of these problems, even likening Obama to Bush.
One of the main reasons that Afghanistan is the way it is now is because it was never the focus of the U.S., given how soon it went into Iraq after ousting the Afghan Taliban regime in 2001, and the vast manpower and effort it poured into occupying Iraq while leaving just a few tens of thousands of troops to search for Osama back in Afghanistan. NATO and Canada, due to deficient manpower, equipment, expertise and national support, certainly couldn't deal with Afghanistan adequately as the U.S. hoped for.
Unfortunately time can't be turned back and the rash, impulsive actions of the Bush administration in rushing to invade two countries and succeeding in neither can't be quickly solved. It will be tough for Obama but he would do well to stick with a set strategy and think long-term and for the good of Afghanistan and not be too influenced by the whims of critics on both ideological sides at home.

One of India's worst faults with its democracy is that a lot of its elected parliamentary representatives are literally criminals. About a quarter, according to this article, about a bunch of activists trying to create a solution to this problem, through bringing about laws to promote transparency in choosing candidates to highlighting to the public information on these crooked MPs and

Something about China on a topic that isn't well-known- Guangdong's "Little Africa," which is facing problems in these dire times, mostly from stricter immigration/visa enforcement.

GlobalPost is a new American website which showcases foreign news and issues, covered by its correspondents from all over the world. It's great to see a new media venture which believes that international news is still worthwhile enough to cover in such detail.

All of a sudden, America is who the world turns to now that the global crisis is getting really scary and shows no sign of ending soon, says Thomas Friedman.

And according to a senior South Korean official who he talked to, "The U.S. is still No. 1 in military, No. 1 in economy, No. 1 in promoting human rights and No. 1 in idealism. Only the U.S. can lead the world. No other country can. China can't. The EU is too divided, and Europe is militarily far behind the U.S."

Sri Lanka's long civil war seems to be in its last stages as government forces have now advanced into the last town held by the Tamil Tigers. Having lost their political capital and main military base, the Tigers are just hanging on as a viable military force and now can only fight from the jungles. The civil war may end soon but social and political tensions are sure to remain, so the government's reaction will be important in whether it will be magnanimous and genuine in trying to achieve reconciliation.

Meanwhile the current global economic crisis is having an adverse effect in an unlikely place, specifically the special court in Sierra Leone which is prosecuting war criminals responsible for committing atrocities during its civil war. Charles Taylor, former warlord and President of neighboring Liberia, may benefit from this with his freedom if the court has to be shut down. It is run entirely on voluntary donations from foreign countries, which the article says is the first international tribunal to be funded this way.

Just this week, notorious warlord Nkunda was arrested in Rwanda by authorities, in a surprising act of seeming cooperation between Rwanda and the DRC. This article wonders about the potential cost to the DRC of this, especially its relations with Rwanda and what it might gain from this. This also describes the unease felt by some in eastern Congo over the collaboration with Rwanda.

Finally, a NY Times article looks into whether Nkunda is really going to be punished or if he's just being kept under wraps in Rwanda temporarily. The warlord, whose close ties to Rwanda are clearly mentioned, may be too close an ally to be disposed of by handing him over to Congo or international authorities.

One of world's longest conflicts possibly coming to end

By the above title, I am referring to the ongoing civil war in Sri Lanka which is possibly coming to a close soon as the government's army has won a series of crucial victories over the rebel Tamil Tigers to push them into only a single remaining stronghold. Having been going on for over two decades, with intermittent periods of peace in between, the recent fighting should be really important news, as it seems the government is close to defeating one of the most feared, well-organised and enduring rebel organizations worldwide.

Of course, with much focus on the fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, there hasn't been much mention of the Sri Lankan conflict though there are regular news reports recently. This Toronto Star commentary focuses on the fighting there, describing and alleging significant abuses in place such as the banning of media from war zones by the government.

While military defeat in this conflict will not necessarily mean the total destruction of the Tamil Tiger organization, it will deal a serious blow to them, forcing them into operating almost entirely as a guerilla force and not having any more territory or strongholds to control as they did with parts of the north and the east. The Tigers' defeat also won't erase their cause which is ostensibly that of protecting the rights and safety of the Tamils and fighting for a separate homeland separate of majority Sinhalese dominance.

Rwanda and Nkunda

A commentator asks Britain to cease its one-sided support for Rwanda, whose government is largely perceived to be directly involved with the conflict in East Congo, through its support of rebel warlord Nkunda. This report also claims evidence that Rwanda soldiers are fighting under Nkunda.
This paragraph sums up the falsity of Nkunda's constant reiteration of waging war to protect Tutsis within the Congo.
"The argument that this is about protecting Congo's Tutsi minority is undermined by Nkunda's grab for the region's wealth. Local people have been forced to mine gold, diamonds, casserite and other minerals that abound in Kivu and export them through Kigali, the Rwandan capital. What had begun as an apparently defensive military operation to protect Rwanda and Uganda from genocidal gangs in Congo seemed to be turning into a violent imperialism aimed more at looting the area than bringing peace."

Africa in distress

The Toronto Star has a fine article on Africa, this time detailing the deep problems in DRCongo, Somalia and Sudan's Darfur. The writer gives a good brief overview of each conflict, as well as mentioning other major problems like Zimbabwe. Simple but erroneous assumptions about Africa's crises are that European colonisation and exploitation or African greed and savagery are responsible, but neither is true, by itself. The main reasons are a mix of Western colonial exploitation and political manipulation, which still lingers, local corruption, inefficient economic policies and the weakness of existing local civil and social structures, based in large part on the artificial constructs of most of these nations.

Following the supposed conclusion of the stunning attacks in India's premier city Mumbai, the Toronto Star has this interesting piece written by an Indian commentator. He mentions the large poverty and the significant lawlessness in Indian cities, of which Maximum City by Suketu Mehra touched on in Mumbai, and this underworld's alleged relations with Pakistan.
One important point he makes is how unprepared India was for this despite the amount of time and preparation involved in planning attacks of this order.
While India has captured a few of the attackers, one hopes that it doesn't lead to larger cross-border reparations, not that this is the first significant terrorist attack in India blamed on Pakistan.

While fighting in East Congo heats up with rebel warlord Nkunda's forces gaining territory and forcing increased government reaction, the situation involving another even more notorious warlord in nearby Uganda is worsening as well. Joseph Kony and his LRA have transferred their terror campaign into northern Congo, looting, killing and taking children and women as slaves. Formerly thought to be waning to the point of almost signing a peace agreement with the Ugandan government, the LRA have reemerged and continued into regions of neighboring countries like Congo and Sudan.

A BBC investigation has confirmed that the Russia-Georgia conflict which occurred during the Olympics in August, and which raised fears of a new Cold War, was actually started by Georgian military aggression against South Ossetia. As well, war crimes were committed by Georgian forces on Ossetian civilians. The first part is quite clear to me as I remember seeing it in news reports at that time but for some reason, this fact seemed to be conveniently ignored or overlooked as a bunch of news reports, articles and commentators sounded alarms and cast direct blame on Russia. The above article's writer mentions this:
"At the start of the August conflict, western media reporting was relatively even-handed, but rapidly switched into full-blown cold war revival mode as Russia turned the tables on the US's Georgian client regime and Nato expansion in the region. Clear initial evidence of who started the war and Georgian troops' killing spree in Tskhinvali was buried or even denied in a highly effective PR operation from Tbilisi."

Furthermore, the writer says that the investigation was barely reported in mainstream news which is quite true because I didn't see any articles about it over the weekend.

Our role in the Congo

The Congo crisis continues with renewed fighting and mass civilian displacement in Kivu, as rebel warlord Laurence Nkunda's forces have managed to seize government army bases. Lack of food, sanitary conditions and violence will possibly cause serious casualties, adding on to the worst conflict toll since World War 2.
This conflict, which mostly is in the Eastern parts of the DRCongo, is not merely ethnic or tribal battles, but rather about rival factions, supported by foreign countries as well as the DRC itself fighting over natural resources.
This article from the UK's Independent goes over the current fighting and directly blames the violence on the wider world's appetite for resources found in DRCongo and Rwandan attempts to maintain control over lucrative resource-rich areas.

Congo situation still dire

Serious fighting, displacement, and rapes are again flaring up in the DR Congo as rebel troops under Rebel commander Nkunda, government troops and other militias have clashed repeatedly since August in the eastern parts of the country. The situation worries the UN which released a statement earlier this week (whatever good that may do).
However amidst this grim state of affairs, is a particularly dark humanitarian disaster taking place, specifically sexual violence and rape on women and girls. Canadian journalist Stephanie Nolen writes about this here and here. While rape has declined in the rest of the country, nominally at peace, it has continued, and possible worsened in the East, described as a "weapon of war" by a Congolese social worker in the 2nd article.
The rapes and sexual violence are able to be committed in such high numbers because of the tremendous lawlessness and chaos in that region, including the DRC's border with Rwanda, where there is a mix of ethnic and natural resource competition at play.

The thing about China that some people don't seem to get, especially those in the media or academia, is that much as China's economic and geopolitical progress during this past decade is extremely impressive, so too is the extent of its problems. So while having the world's largest foreign reserves or the most internet-users in the world seem impressive, China also has serious problems that are characteristic of poorer developing countries and often in larger quantity. One such problem is that of child kidnapping and trafficking, which this Toronto Star article describes a sad case.
From the article:
"A 2007 U.S. State Department report said there may be 20,000 victims of human trafficking in China annually. Others claim as many as 70,000 children are kidnapped each year. State media say one of the key factors driving the stolen child market is the deeply rooted Chinese tradition of having a male heir in the family."
Besides children, women are also kidnapped and trafficked for prostitution or for marriage. I'm not saying this is the fault of the government, though their actions mentioned in the Star article are certainly heartless, and it is definitely a main responsibility for them to deal effectively with problems like these. This post is mainly to describe a serious problem, one of many, that China still faces and which precludes it from becoming a real superpower.

This fine article from the WaPost gives a great overview of China's geopolitical status in the world, one which is rarely stated or believed by many in the media. Although my reading of it is a bit belated- the article having been printed this July- this is a minor issue because the main gist of the article is still as relevant and effective now.
Basically the writer states that despite the tremendous frenzy over China from the media, the government, economists and others in society, the country is a long way from becoming a true superpower, especially one like the United States. Although this might be kind of obvious to some, one would never know it based on the amount of attention (hype) given to China such as nonfiction books and media stories proclaiming China to be the next superpower or the next big threat to the US or think-tanks releasing reports saying that China's economy will become the largest sometime by 2020 or 2050 and so on.
He gives 4 main points for his contrary opinion: "dire demographics, an overrated economy, an environment under siege and an ideology that doesn't travel well -- China is more likely to remain the muscle-bound adolescent of the international system than to become the master
of the world."

Using a combination of facts and personal experience, the writer effectively makes his case and states things that usually aren't said or explained in many articles about China, for instance its looming senior population explosion.

So earlier this week, the U.S. Congress failed to pass a federal bailout plan that would provide US$ 700 billion to help the economy cope with the current crisis. There were mixed reactions with many not surprised or glad that most Congressmen and women would reject it, as many of the U.S. public feel revulsion for what seems like a giant and costly bailout of the financial sector or even socialism for the rich, as I saw it described in one article. Others were disappointed because they believe that this bailout is necessary, not only for the Wall Street firms and financial institutions, but for the broader public who have borrowed any kind of loans from banks and such. Whatever the real situation is, there is a strong sentiment that the plan was presented badly and that the general public has a legitimate reason to feel disgust and apprehension over this plan being passed. There is also a lot of effort being made by U.S. federal officials like the President, the Treasury Secretary and the two main presidential candidates to convince the public that the bailout plan is absolutely essential for the nation. I think that this is true but not because the wellbeing of the financial institutions and banks are themselves intrinsically vital for the nation's wellbeing. The second article I linked to above, from Time, claims that the majority of the bailout plan is not going to help common people but financial assets held by the firms themselves. I do think what the writer says is largely true and I don't care much about the financial firms themselves. What I also think though is that these financial assets, much of them virtual garbage, comprise so much of the economy that if these firms go down, they will take America down with them.

This Newsweek article describes the inefficiency of india's PM Manmohan Singh's reign, much of which is not actually attributed to him personally but to party politics and general corruption and incompetence.

Following the wave of infant sickness in China stemming from milk deliberately added with a hazardous chemical, as well as other similar products, there has been a lot of outrage, both domestic and international, over food quality in China. This Toronto Star piece talks about how this crisis is symptomatic of the "Two Chinas" which exist in that nation. This dual state of affairs, in which proud achievements such hosting a great Olympics and developing a space program is contradicted by tremendous problems on the domestic front such as widespread low food and product quality and significant environmental pollution. What makes it worse is the milk crisis has two dimensions, the first being the roles of the milk companies who processed and distributed these contaminated products, and the second being the government cover-up which prevented and then delayed the release of information on the sicknesses.

Royson James of the Toronto Star has a good piece on the sad state of affairs in Haiti, which has suffered from 4 hurricanes this year. Not only is it in a seriously dire situation but it has been largely ignored by media and has not received as much aid as it needs. One of the poorest nations on Earth and so close to 2 of the wealthiest nations in the world- US and Canada. As James describes it poignantly: "the first black republic of the new world, the seat of a slave revolt that would send the pillars of Caribbean and American slavery toppling within 60 years. Maybe it's because France, America and other imperialists have never forgiven the country."
Famed activist, writer and medical doctor Paul Farmer has an article on Haiti's tremendous need for help in Counterpunch.

Here's an interesting piece on globalization by former HK governor Chris Patten (extracted from his new book) in the Guardian which might at first glance probably infuriate some of the good folks I went to school with who persist in seeing globalization as this great Western-led system of dominance.
Rather than bash it, people should understand it better, he says and points to the ironic use of globalisation by anti-globalisation activists to rally and fight it. He does say that in several developed nations like the US and the UK, most respondents in a survey thought globalization had a more negative than positive effect.
He then makes some thoughtful and effective criticisms of world trade but without blaming it on globalization itself as many do. He slams the protectionism of wealthy countries in imposing heavy tariffs on imports or banning them altogether which are hypocritical and exploitative to poor countries, as well as the obscene agricultural subsidies which powers like European nations and Japan grant to their farmers which thus enable them to keep their prices down and even export to poor countries. Of course, some might say that these unfair protectionist measures are main aspects of globalisation itself and which can't be seen as separate.

He also speaks out on the current financial crisis, saying that globalisation isn't to blame but the incompetence and greed of the financial players like banks and so on.

"I remember a banker once trying to explain to me how the mortgage of, say, an unemployed single parent in St Louis could be morphed into a triple-A rated financial investment in London, New York or Paris. Magically, impoverishment became a "special investment vehicle". Try as hard as the banker did to get me to comprehend the beautiful simplicities of the whole process, I remained baffled. It was, I suppose, some sort of relief later on to discover that it was not me who was stupid."

It's a very long article which goes all the way to the bottom but which is well worth the read.

The world is in the midst of the alleged worst economic global crisis (since the 30s with no end in sight, as the powerful USA got caught up with the closure of a venerated brokerage firm and the potential loss of another before being saved by the government. Here's some readings on this crisis:

The bailout of AIG may actually signal more potential financial turbulence up ahead as other larger firms also indulged in the same things it did.
This AsiaTimes article explains why an insurance giant was so affected by the financial crisis.

Whatever the specific financial causes of these events, it's not surprising that a system driven by high lending and borrowing and hence, often unsound loans, would collapse over time. It's smething that's always struck me as unsustainable in the long run, like a "house built on cards" sort of thing.

The world economy has been sputtering a lot this year and Asia's strong economies are showing serious signs of vulnerability. This Newsweek piece asserts "why Asia won't save the world" as Asian economies so dependent on export growth and on the American consumer are beset by inflation and unable to maintain their own growth. Asian powers like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have all been seriously affected which gives an idea of the extent of economic slowdown, with Japan and Taiwan's governments having to introduce hefty stimulus packages .
One wonders if these problems are indeed confirmation of the error in focusing on economic growth rather than a steady approach addressing domestic social problems which many of these countries especially India and China certainly have a lot of.

Is Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe starting to come to his sense? A power-sharing deal has been agreed upon which will see opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai become Prime Minister, though Mugabe will remain as President. Rightly so, people are skeptical and even worried like opposition leaders and even Tanzania's President. It will be interesting to check back in the near months to see how this joint government holds up.

The recent brief conflict between Russia and Georgia, fought over two disputed Georgian territories proved to be one of the most significant events of the year. Auspiciously, or inauspiciously, starting on the same day as the opening of the Beijing Olympics, this conflict set off a load of alarms all over the world, especially in Europe and the US, over the aggressiveness of Russia and the possibility of a new era of global confrontation with the heir of the West's Cold War foe Soviet Union. Several issues were perceived from the conflict including that of the right of places to secede due to ethnic or cultural differences (Kosovo being a striking example), which brought up inevitable comparisons with Taiwan's situation, Russia as a resurgent foe and possibly wanting to invade other nations namely Ukraine, and the role of the US as global superpower being brought into question, in its inability to directly assist Georgia. The biggest issue has to be that seemingly overnight, the possibility loomed of a new military conflict with a dangerous Russia and the West. Notwithstanding the many civil wars and conflicts happening all over the world and the US troubles in Afghanistan and Iraq, the closeness of the threat of Russian military actions on Europe aka the developed world and the European dependency on Russian oil supplies, shocked the EU.
There's no doubt that Russia delivered a savage retribution to Georgia which was far destructive and brutal than Georgia's initial aggression. In the interest of being a cooperative and moral power it should retreat from Georgian territory and allow for international probe and peacekeeping in the disputed areas. But there is also no question that Georgia was the aggressor, sending tanks and soldiers into the disputed territories and attempting to take control by force. The real question which should be asked is was there any substantial Western or American role in this action or was it solely the Georgian leader's prerogative?
Back in April earlier this year, there were already signs of possibly military action by Georgia which was detected by Russia who warned of retaliation.

A roundup of interesting reading:
Here's the French President warning of a "new Cold War" before an emergency NATO meeting in mid-August.
This piece written as the conflict broke out, claims that the conflict is mainly about Russia's concern and anger over Georgia's NATO yearning. The writer does make a good point about Russia's hypocrisy in crushing separatists in Chechnya while endorsing the rights of South Ossetia to separate.
Foreign affairs expert columnist Gwynne Dyer says a new Cold War might be possible.
This article from Canadian Dimension examines the role of the US as an instigator in the conflict given its support for Georgia's leader Saakashvili and its foreign policy moves.
Commentators such as this one think a Russian move on Ukraine is very plausible.
This Guardian editorial slams Russia for its military action and claims that this is a sign of its weakening.
And finally to get a good overview of the conflict, check the BBC here.

The Toronto Star has a touching story on a survivor of Sierra Leone's vicious civil war now making a new life in Toronto. Mariatu Kamara suffered through a double hand amputation as well as losing a baby from a prior rape, and she recalls these events in a book that was recently released-The Bite of the Mango. As the article points out, her story brings a new perspective to the conflict
because mostly the story has been told about the blood diamonds and former child soldiers, not of
civilian victims like her.

Some light on the Georgia-Russia conflict

The recent Georgia-Russia conflict which stemmed from Georgia's surprise attempt to retake a disputed region and Russia's equally surprisingly swift attack on Georgia has been one of the biggest stories in world news presently. Now coming to a probable close, the conflict raised significant fears and concerns, especially that of a resurgent and powerful Russia acting out against a smaller and weaker neighbor. A lot of the Western media has seemed to overlook the fact that Russia's move into Georgia was instigated by Georgia's bloody offensive to retake the disputed region of South Ossetia and the fact it is Georgia and not Russia who is the aggressor. This piece from the Nation talks about this while trying to provide a clearer understanding of the conflict. The writer admonishes the West for its hypocrisy in failing to recognise or ignoring the situation of South Ossetia especially in light of its aid and support for Kosovo's independence from Serbia.

Rabble also has an article on the link between cellphones and the crisis in the DR Congo (Democratic Republic of Congo, but referred to as "Congo" in the article). It shows the link that Canada, including 2 former Prime Ministers, have with this exploitative relationship. For those who don't know about the Congo crisis, here's a good little primer from Democracy Now.

Rabble news features an interesting conversation with the author of Planet of slums on the socioeconomic disparities and other details of Dubai, the extravagant world-famous city in the UAE known for its plethora of ambitious architectural and economic projects. Yet the excessively grand schemes of this opulent city also contains a significant undercurrent of shame and exploitation, as the author Mike Davis talks about. Dubai mainly relies on a huge number of migrant foreign laborers, who actually outnumber the locals, from South Asian countries like India and Pakistan to build its buildings and perform menial tasks like domestic labor and waitering. Many of these workers experience poor living conditions like cramped quarters, long hours of work, dangerous work environments and low pay. This has led to outbreaks of unrest and attempts at reforms by the authorities but which are not adequate.
Davis also tells how on a broader regional plane, while Dubai's extravagance might make it a juicy target for being in the midst of much poverty and conflict, it protects itself through its connections with major regional players like Iran and the US.

So hopefully the next time you hear about or see Dubai and its grand projects in the news, consider the vast socio-economic inequalities behind their constructions and how superficial that grandeur is.

The poorest billionaires in the world

This article shows how low the economy has sank in Zimbabwe. Inflation has been sky-high for a long time now but it seems new heights are always being reached.
According to the IRIN article:
"A loaf of bread costs Z$100 billion at the official rate, a kilogramme of meat Z$450 billion, (around US$5.60) and a half-litre sachet of milk sells for Z$200 billion (about US$2.50)."

Just a few days ago in July 19, Zimbabwe's Central Bank released $100 billion notes, actually "bearer checks". This is a rapid increase from earlier this year in January, when it issued bills in denominations of $1 million, $5 million, and $10 million -- and then in May, bills from $25 million and $50 million up to $25 billion and $50 billion.

The IRIN article also says that the official inflation rate is at 2.2 million percent and rising every day. What this means is that money is constantly depreciating so that what may cost, say $10 million today may cost $15 million Friday. The casual labourer quoted in the article tells of having to line up outside the bank for 4 hours to withdraw $100 billion, the daily limit imposed by Zimbabwe's Reserve Bank, and that he will have to come back the next day to do the same because of fears the money will depreciate even more, not to mention the fact that he will need more money because the $100 billion withdrawn will not last more than a few days.

A look at India-China relations.

This Taiwan Journal article offers an interesting commentary on India-China relations, painting a not so rosy picture despite increased ties between the two. The article instead claims that on different issues like India's push for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, border and territorial negotiations and most importantly, a proposal by India for an "open and inclusive security architecture" in Asia, China has not responded warmly. The article also describes the alarming incursion by Chinese troops into Indian territory, such as this one.
One would think that if these two Asian heavyweights were ever to truly cooperate in any sort of vital issue, they could indeed wield some substantial influence on the world stage. Instead there's still lingering suspicions between the two despite growing trade.

The Toronto Star's Haroon Siddiqui writes about the huge cost to Iraq that has been caused by the American occupation and which America needs to take full responsibility for solving.
"An age-old civilization and its remnants have been destroyed.

A whole generation of Iraqi civilians has been killed, maimed and uprooted. Between 80,000 and 1.2 million are dead (depending on which estimate you go by). More than 4 million have been made refugees – half forced into exile in Jordan and Syria, and the other half internally uprooted."

This just has to be the largest catastrophe in the world in this decade, surpassing those of even the Darfur genocide, Afghanistan (which also involves the US) and even the great natural disasters like the Asian tsunami. The DR Congo might be the only one to rival it though.

The Kielburger brothers always write interesting and informative articles on many international social issues. Here they've written something different from their regular articles, as their latest article is about the relationship between China and the US which binds them more tighter than many would think. Specifically this is referring to their economic trade relations in which China has a huge surplus with the US, exporting more to the US than importing, while also buying up a lot of American treasury securities.
As the authors note:

"China is now so deeply invested in U.S. securities, any disruption to the value of the dollar would be a serious blow to its own reserves. Reliant as they are on the U.S. market for goods, the Chinese are forced to buy up new securities as soon as they're issued to prevent their currency, the yuan, from appreciating against the U.S. dollar. Neither country holds a significant advantage over the other."

The thing is not only does China depend on the US to buy a lot of its products, but it also needs the US to keep a strong economy and currency in order for its own vast holdings of American treasuries to maintain their value, to the point of propping up the US currency by continuously buying up American treasury securities. In essence, the US has little leverage over China.

Of course, China does realise the vulnerability of their situation and raised some concerns by suggesting selling off some of their US dollars last year which they later retracted. They have also tried to invest in more US-dollar non-treasury investments such as Morgan Stanley.
See this table for the list of foreign countries who own American treasury securities. As you can see, China is by far the number two owner though it is relatively a little behind Japan. Keep in mind Japan's economy is greater than China's.

The Economist has a decent article on the recent direct flights between China and Taiwan which clearly describes the intricacies in the visits by Chinese tourists which outline the delicate relationship between the two "Chinas". For instance, the flights still have to fly through Hong Kong airspace rather than directly between Taiwan and China "because Taiwan's military is on constant alert for an air attack from the mainland, and analysts say it cannot afford to let civilian flights clutter cross-straits radars."
There seems to be a lot of goodwill and hope surrounding these visits by politicians and leaders of both sides, as these visits are a potential significant step to improving and closer relations. One wonders how the majority of Taiwanese feel.