With all the surprising people's revolutions that broke out in the Middle East and North Africa this year, will Africa follow soon? Not likely, which this Toronto Star tries to explain why. Poverty, a lack of a strong middle class, ethnic divides, and a lack of strong united heritage are the reasons cited. It's not surprising but it's a good little description of how complex sub-Saharan Africa is.

Get a glimpse into one of the few real remaining monarchies in the world, Swaziland, here. Swaziland, not Switzerland, is a little round country that is nestled snugly between the Northeast of South Africa and Mozambique. The article nicely describes this country ruled by a king and a charming little place that is actually a bit better off than much of South Africa, especially crime-wise, but it also has the highest AIDS rate in the world. It's also a place where media and political freedoms are seriously curtailed and there have been protests and detention of opposition figures in past months. As people become more modernized and economic problems become more pronounced, the monarchy will need to modernize and one wonders how long it can last.

Economist Amartya Sen compares India to China, showing how India seriously lags China, and even poorer neighbor Bangladesh, in health, education and poverty. It's hard to see that other than democracy, and even then this is dubious, India has nothing over China. On the other hand, it's also a good example of why democracy is useless without other factors like economic growth, stability and low corruption.

Things looking up in Africa's potential powerhouse? This Time Magazine article suggests they are as Nigeria prepares for presidential, parliamentary and regional elections later this month. Bedeviled by massive corruption, conflict and regional, religious and ethnic divisions, Africa's most populous nation and oil giant has never risen to its potential. The article makes the case that a turn in fortune for the better in Lagos, the former capital and megacity of over 20 million, might signify an improvement for the nation, though it's still kind of a stretch.

The world has changed a lot in the past 100 days, with Japan being somewhat brought to its knees by a freak combination of natural and nuclear disasters, and the Arab world being thrown into upheaval. While Japan has managed to control its ongoing nuclear problems (which may or may not have been seriously blown out of proportion by Western media), the Arab world, specifically Libya, is still facing serious issues. The Toronto Star describes the Arab uprising surviving 100 days and still going strong. Libya is in the midst of civil war with Western aerial military intervention, while Yemen, Bahrain and Syria have seen public protests and deaths of civilians.
The US has led the Western aerial intervention (now led by NATO, but with the US still in a leading role) in Libya, despite widespread foreign and local (US) concerns about military action against another Muslim country, and this is strongly a result of Libyan opposition, Arab League and international pressure for supporting the anti-Muamar Gadhafi rebels. What it shows is that for all the talk about US imperialism or conversely, the decline of the US, Europe is still not prepared or not willing to step up. I've never been a strong supporter of the US but this is one instance where it does not deserve the bulk of criticisms for its military role. On the other hand, there have been a slew of voices saying that this is all a sleigh of hand done by the US and Western powers, that instead of having been dragged kicking and screaming, the US actually orchestrated it this way, but for now, I'm going to say it sounds mostly like conspiracy theory.

The deck of this article below the headline says it all. As Japan recovers from its devastating natural disasters and civil war continues in Libya, West Africa, specifically the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire) is on the brink of civil war itself. The tensions stem from the results of last November's presidential elections, in which the incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo declared his victory despite supposedly losing. The alleged winner, opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, has continued his claim for the presidency and forces loyal to him have started fighting with Gbagbo's troops. The nation endured a savage civil war, one of several in West Africa at that time, during the earlier part of the last decade and hasn't really recovered from it. If war was to break out again, it would be devastating and would require intervention from West African, African or even the international community.

Spare a thought for the Irish

The Celtic Tiger is no more, brought down stunningly by the 2008 global crisis. All those years of strong economic growth and sky-high housing and building prices and new construction was halted and ended, resulting in a crisis that many of Ireland's people still seem to be having difficulties understanding and getting over. Michael Lewis, Vanity Fair writer and author of The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine and The Blind Side, wrote a lengthy piece that examines the Irish crisis. It's a sad story, with Lewis showing a sympathetic side whilst also describing in definite detail how the Irish helped cause their nation's economy to implode. Unlike the US and the rampant greed and duplicity behind its notorious subprime mortgage scheme that led to the global crisis, the Irish spending was less cynical and driven by more genuine optimism. Case in point, the Irish bank executives who benefited greatly from the rise in housing purchases invested in their own firms' bonds and stocks. This isn't the same as the heads of major banks and financial institutions in the US who walked away from the crisis chastened but with tons of cash. If there are any bankers in the world who deserves a little sympathy, it should be the Irish ones. But the biggest lesson in the article is how people who saw the housing boom for what it really was and who actually spoke out were ridiculed and derided. In the end, they were right but rightly so, there's no schaudenfraude.

Arab protests in Libya

The upheavals in the Arab world have spread to Libya, with little signs of slowing down. Libya's Muammar Gaddhafi has lived up to his previously fading mad dictator reputation by having his forces gun down almost 100 protesters, the most violent state reaction in all the countries that have seen people protests against their leaders. It seems fitting that Libya should have mass protests because for far too long, Gaddhafi has stayed in power, even if he's mellowed a bit recently, and made his country a pariah. He is also one of the few, or only, African dictators in power. Bahrain, a tiny, oil-rich country in the Gulf coast, has also experienced street protests against an unpopular government, with a handful of protesters having been killed so far.

See who else is in trouble in the Arab region here. The full article takes a good look at the problems and challenges with the possible overthrow of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak for the US. One of the main points is that revolutions aren't often predictable and that sometimes what comes after is worse, no matter how bad the existing regime/dictator was, with the Iranian Revolution in 1979 being a key example.

What's up with China's relationship and role in Africa? Well, it's growing and going beyond just business, as this post and its assorted links have a more nuanced take on this issue. Going beyond the usual cries of China as a new colonizer, the linked articles, specifically a detailed report by an NGO, emphasize African nations must take more responsibility on their own part to be more accountable and assertive.

Sometime soon, Egypt's longtime leader Hosni Mubarak is probably going to step down. Things have escalated after over a week of anti-Mubarak protests in Egypt despite Mubarak trying to appease the protesters, though only in offering small, gradual steps as opposed to just stepping down right away. After revamping his Cabinet last week, Mubarak has offered to leave power in September but this is still too long for many of his citizens. However, Mubarak's supporters have stepped into the fray now, engaging in clashes with anti-Mubarak protesters that have resulted in deaths. This ongoing situation has ramifications extending beyond the country, from the possibility of continuing the recent spread of people revolutions in the Arab world, to how engaged the US should be especially given Mubarak is a staunch ally and even to how much influence people in China could take from it, prompting the authorities there to block coverage on Egypt.

First Tunisia, now Egypt and Jordan. The Arab world seems to be going through a really tumultuous moment as a wave of public protests have broken out in those countries against the respective rulers. Egypt has taken the protests, in which 26 have died so far, so seriously that it actually "shut down" the Internet, something that has never been done before.

Egypt's PM Hosni Mubarak, the very person who the protesters want to see step down, also dismissed his Cabinet and defended his security forces' heavyhanded reaction. Mubarak is an elected ruler but under his 30-year rule, he has clamped down on media and opposition parties, tortured dissidents, and generally engineered Egypt's supposed democratic system to ensure his continual reign. Yet he has also overseen a tenuous kind of peace with Israel and has steered Egypt into the US geopolitical camp, so it's not surprising that the US leadership, specifically Vice-President Joe Biden came out and backed him.

No surprise happened with the South Sudan secession vote. The South is poised to break away from Sudan as most of the votes counted overwhelmingly indicate a desire for independence. There will be a lot of challenges and while euphoria might be felt now, one wonders how most people in that region will feel later on down the line, after formal independence begins in July.

In a first, an Arab strongman was toppled by his people. Tunisia's longtime leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali hightailed it out of his country earlier this week after thousands of Tunisians marched demanding his ouster. He had earlier said he would continue his term but promised to step down in 2014. It is surprising because Tunisia is a rather stable country and Ben Ali's reign was kind of benign compared to other Arab and Middle East dictators, but he was still a dictator, jailing and torturing human rights activists and limiting free speech. However it wasn't these issues but anger over unemployment and rising prices that directly sparked these protests. Still, there must have been a strong amount of frustration at the seemingly permanent reign of their dictatorial leader among much of society that fueled their dissatisfaction over economic problems.

The Southern Sudan referendum has gotten underway and it is highly likely that the world will see a new nation this year. There may have been a few hiccups but that doesn't seem to be hindering many people in this war-weary and undeveloped, not even underdeveloped, region.

Shocking news today from the US as a congresswoman was shot in plain sight in an Arizona supermarket while 6 others were killed. She was shot in the head while she was holding a public meet at the supermarket. This is really crazy stuff, shocking and sad. That it happened in Arizona is striking, given the tense and controversial recent politics in that state concerning immigration laws. It also reminded me of the shooting of a politician in Taiwan last November.

Another revealing look into how microlending got out of hand in India. Still, the idea itself still seems sound, it looks more that some lenders got too greedy and their intentions were mainly self-enrichment and profit rather than helping the poor.
An interesting excerpt:

Overlending in Andhra Pradesh calls to mind the U.S. subprime crisis, says Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder, director of corporate risk at International Finance Corp. in Washington, which invests in microlenders. “Subprime lending was initially seen as extending homeownership to poorer people, doing good,” Shyam-Sunder says. As the industry expanded, making a profit became more important to some lenders, she says.

China's recently announced first-ever stealth fighter has stirred up some alarm in the West. However, the opinions are mixed on how truly effective or worrying this development is supposed to be. It's a good development for China, as long as it's not for any offensive means. Why should only the US and Russia have stealth fighters?

A new nation may be born soon in Africa. The Southern part of Sudan will vote in a referendum between Jan 9 and 15 whether to split from Sudan and form a new nation or stay with Sudan. CNN has an extensive article that details the current situation, the historical background, and challenges.
If the area chooses independence, it will be a precarious state of affairs.

Microlending is going through some tough times as it's been the subject of harsh criticism from politicians and activists. Grameen Bank, the institution that won its founder Mohammed Yunus a Nobel Prize, is even under investigation for alleged tax evasion regarding US$100 million. In other areas like India, microlending institutions have been said to be trapping borrowers into a cycle of debt as instead of "lifting themselves" out of poverty, they just keep borrowing constantly. This is really unfortunate as it seemed like a good concept. Yet, I feel that the problems described in this article about microlending aren't problems with microlending itself but problems with human faults such as greed and over-ambitiousness. In effect, these faults are also those that have plagued regular banking or financial institutions elsewhere- trapping borrowers into a cycle of poverty seems familiar.