Friday, July 25, 2008
Davis also tells how on a broader regional plane, while Dubai's extravagance might make it a juicy target for being in the midst of much poverty and conflict, it protects itself through its connections with major regional players like Iran and the US.
So hopefully the next time you hear about or see Dubai and its grand projects in the news, consider the vast socio-economic inequalities behind their constructions and how superficial that grandeur is.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The poorest billionaires in the world
According to the IRIN article:
"A loaf of bread costs Z$100 billion at the official rate, a kilogramme of meat Z$450 billion, (around US$5.60) and a half-litre sachet of milk sells for Z$200 billion (about US$2.50)."
Just a few days ago in July 19, Zimbabwe's Central Bank released $100 billion notes, actually "bearer checks". This is a rapid increase from earlier this year in January, when it issued bills in denominations of $1 million, $5 million, and $10 million -- and then in May, bills from $25 million and $50 million up to $25 billion and $50 billion.
The IRIN article also says that the official inflation rate is at 2.2 million percent and rising every day. What this means is that money is constantly depreciating so that what may cost, say $10 million today may cost $15 million Friday. The casual labourer quoted in the article tells of having to line up outside the bank for 4 hours to withdraw $100 billion, the daily limit imposed by Zimbabwe's Reserve Bank, and that he will have to come back the next day to do the same because of fears the money will depreciate even more, not to mention the fact that he will need more money because the $100 billion withdrawn will not last more than a few days.
Friday, July 18, 2008
A look at India-China relations.
One would think that if these two Asian heavyweights were ever to truly cooperate in any sort of vital issue, they could indeed wield some substantial influence on the world stage. Instead there's still lingering suspicions between the two despite growing trade.
"An age-old civilization and its remnants have been destroyed.
A whole generation of Iraqi civilians has been killed, maimed and uprooted. Between 80,000 and 1.2 million are dead (depending on which estimate you go by). More than 4 million have been made refugees – half forced into exile in Jordan and Syria, and the other half internally uprooted."
This just has to be the largest catastrophe in the world in this decade, surpassing those of even the Darfur genocide, Afghanistan (which also involves the US) and even the great natural disasters like the Asian tsunami. The DR Congo might be the only one to rival it though.
As the authors note:
"China is now so deeply invested in U.S. securities, any disruption to the value of the dollar would be a serious blow to its own reserves. Reliant as they are on the U.S. market for goods, the Chinese are forced to buy up new securities as soon as they're issued to prevent their currency, the yuan, from appreciating against the U.S. dollar. Neither country holds a significant advantage over the other."
The thing is not only does China depend on the US to buy a lot of its products, but it also needs the US to keep a strong economy and currency in order for its own vast holdings of American treasuries to maintain their value, to the point of propping up the US currency by continuously buying up American treasury securities. In essence, the US has little leverage over China.
Of course, China does realise the vulnerability of their situation and raised some concerns by suggesting selling off some of their US dollars last year which they later retracted. They have also tried to invest in more US-dollar non-treasury investments such as Morgan Stanley.
See this table for the list of foreign countries who own American treasury securities. As you can see, China is by far the number two owner though it is relatively a little behind Japan. Keep in mind Japan's economy is greater than China's.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
There seems to be a lot of goodwill and hope surrounding these visits by politicians and leaders of both sides, as these visits are a potential significant step to improving and closer relations. One wonders how the majority of Taiwanese feel.
Friday, July 04, 2008
The background of this event is the recent declining fortune of FARC-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the leftist rebel army that has been fighting a longstanding guerilla war against the Colombian state for over 40 years. Over the past year, they've suffered some defeats and setbacks including the assasination of top leaders, the capture of key documents which almost precipitated a Colombia-Venezuela war a few months ago, and numerous defections. The US government has helped Colombia a lot with confronting the FARC, providing over $4 billion in military aid (Plan Colombia) since 2000 such as training and providing equipment. While this aid is ostensibly for anti-narcotic actions on cocaine, which the FARC also derives a significant income from, much of the military aid goes towards anti-FARC military operations.
The FARC has its origins in the aftermath of concentrated state campaigns against Marxist enclaves in the sixties but it seems over time their goals have shifted from Marxist revolutionary social change to greed, trafficking and wanton thuggery. Newsweek has a recent piece on this decline of the FARC to "a bunch of crooks".
This does not mean they are wholly responsible for this enduring civil conflict because right-wing paramilitaries and even the state have also engaged in oppressive and violent acts as well.
Global exchange has a bunch of articles critical towards the role of the US and Colombian state in the civil conflict. But in all essence, this is a guerilla movement who has lost its purpose, fighting for no one but itself.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
The international community, the regional community and Zimbabwe's heavyweight neighbor South Africa have all been helpless in creating a solution to this crisis and force Mugabe to cease his oppression, reduced to weak criticisms and a non-binding resolution. The regional body of state, SADC (Southern African Development Community) has called for a postponement of the poll and talks to be held between the ruling party Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the opposition MDC.
Even with the tremendous amount of state oppression and violence in Zimbabwe, regional leaders are still divided in their stance towards Mugabe with sentiment of old shared anti-colonial struggle still playing a role, no doubt concerning Mugabe's past as an African independence hero, a past which seems less and less real.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
I do find that this critique is much too optimistic of the "rise" of Asian countries, as with many similar pieces on the growing economic power of developing powers, because there are so many significant mostly domestic problems they face which can't or aren't yet addressed by their economic progress.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Burundi peace
By comparison, extremely little has been written or reported about Burundi's civil war, which also has a Hutu-Tutsi emnity like Rwanda. Situated right next to each other and formerly part of the same colony, they both have the same ethnic groups and similar clashes and conflicts between the Hutu and Tutsi. Doubtless the tremendous loss of life in Burundi's civil war has been largely ignored or overlooked by international media as it is overshadowed by Rwanda's genocide and the DR Congo's conflicts and wars, both of which have higher death tolls.
This very recent peace agreement which I mentioned above, represents a hope that things can continue to improve, in light of successful elections in 2005 and a relative stability since at least 2006.
This excerpt from a yahoo news article gives a decent brief summary of the civil war:
"Burundi, like neighbouring Rwanda, has been marked by differences between Hutus and Tutsis.
The central African country's civil war broke out in 1993. That year, the country's first Hutu president was assassinated during a failed coup organised by Tutsi military officers.
The conflict stretched more than a decade and killed 300,000 people, and the country today faces a stagnant economy and a paralysed parliament.
A ceasefire agreement was signed in December 2002 by the government and the main Hutu rebel movement, the Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD), which finally entered government in November 2003. The FNL, however, also a Hutu group, refused to enter into talks with the government at the time."
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Within hours of the quake, China was able to mobilize its vast human resources and target them at a massive disaster in a remote and forbidding region. More than 100,000 troops, police, medical workers and volunteers of every kind were astonishingly quick to reach the worst-hit cities, to search for survivors, offer relief, and evacuate the homeless to sports stadiums and tents.
It may have seemed chaotic at first, but a closer look revealed it as an impressive display of China's economic prowess. China's modern infrastructure - expressways, bridges, airports, bulldozers, excavators, cranes, trucks and vast fleets of private cars - allowed most of the quake victims to get help within days (even though many villages were bypassed in the early response).
As an organizational feat, it was extraordinary. Much of the response was improvised and instinctive, yet it meshed together in unexpectedly efficient ways, using the best of government muscle, military power, corporate resources, individual volunteerism and grassroots creativity.On the other hand:
Chinese rescue workers readily admitted that their efforts were hobbled by a severe shortage of life-detecting equipment and sniffer dogs, which the foreign teams would have provided.
Overall, I would think that China, in terms of its authorities and its people, are making a very solid, conscientious effort to deal with this disaster such as rescuing trapped victims and helping survivors. Long term, the challenge will be to help the survivors rebuild their lives and to enforce more stringent building regulations to ensure this amount of destruction will never occur again.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Earthquake photos
In addition, there is also criticism of the response by the authorities to the earthquake by writers, bloggers and online forum users. This isn't surprising given that authorities have been criticised for other disasters such as the transportation pileups caused by snow storms and several environmental pollution problems. There are complaints of the slow response times by the authorities and the inadequacies of China's disaster response efforts, the bulk of which are conducted by the army. The structural designs of many of the buildings which collapsed were also called into question because they may have been inferior or poorly designed to withstand physical disasters like earthquakes.
This writer writes a critical well-articulated letter which openly criticises the government but also stresses the right to do so, in the face of criticisms against him by others. Unity in the time of disasters like this is important but just as, or more important is accountability which letters like this serve to enforce.
What is certain is that despite China's roaring economy and gigantic foreign reserves, it still lacks in vital areas such as physical infrastructure and disaster response capabilities.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The reason why this issue is relevant is because of popular line of thinking of China as an emerging superpower. This is a notion that sounds good and might have some merits but on the whole, it is not very true. This Asia Times Online piece tries to debunk this thinking with some comparative facts of China's economic growth. The author also questions the soundness of China's institutions like its legal framework and social welfare capabilities as being inadequate. While the bleak predictions may be a bit farfetched-China breaking up into separate regional zones for one- most of the descriptions of China's weaknesses and the falseness of claims of China as an "emerging superpower" are spot on, in my opinion.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
"The Middle Kingdom, moreover, sits in the middle of a tough neighborhood. It's not only the U.S. fleet off its shores Beijing must contend with. Of China's four nuclear neighbors—Russia, India, Pakistan and North Korea—two (Russia and India) spend almost as much on defense as China does (so does nonnuclear Japan), and at least two (Pakistan and North Korea) are potentially unstable. Just a generation ago, China was defeated in war by tiny Vietnam."
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Recently the Vice-President elect Vincent Siew held a one-on-one meeting with China's President Hu Jintao at the Boao forum in Hainan, the most high-level interaction between China and Taiwan in over half a century. It seems progress is definitely being made on cross-straits relations and better economic performance will happen for Taiwan, at least in tourism due to the expected influx of visitors from China.
Direct air links will bring about a significant impact of normalization in cross-straits relations due to enabling the actual arrival of Chinese and Taiwanese on each other's soils after taking direct flights. This will obviously bring both "countries" closer together and some might believe, eventual reunification. How would people in Taiwan react to having loads of visitors from the mainland coming into Taiwan every week? Of course, people from Taiwan constantly visit China anyways but then Taiwan is always the one on the defensive in this cross-straits geopolitics.
I'm personally a bit skeptical of course, because of my personal experience of hearing how strong some Taiwanese people identify with Taiwan. I think some people, including from Hong Kong, underestimate the pride and faith that many Taiwanese feel for Taiwan and I don't think they will easily accept losing any of their current autonomy and allow China to regain Taiwan in their present state. Despite the idealism, for some Taiwanese, things like democracy, free media and a vibrant open society are things to be treasured. I guarantee that the time when China has a reasonable level of those three things, Taiwan would lose a lot of its reluctance and defiance for reunification.
But certainly this latest development-the announcement of direct air flights-bodes well for the near future.