With all the surprising people's revolutions that broke out in the Middle East and North Africa this year, will Africa follow soon? Not likely, which this Toronto Star tries to explain why. Poverty, a lack of a strong middle class, ethnic divides, and a lack of strong united heritage are the reasons cited. It's not surprising but it's a good little description of how complex sub-Saharan Africa is.

Get a glimpse into one of the few real remaining monarchies in the world, Swaziland, here. Swaziland, not Switzerland, is a little round country that is nestled snugly between the Northeast of South Africa and Mozambique. The article nicely describes this country ruled by a king and a charming little place that is actually a bit better off than much of South Africa, especially crime-wise, but it also has the highest AIDS rate in the world. It's also a place where media and political freedoms are seriously curtailed and there have been protests and detention of opposition figures in past months. As people become more modernized and economic problems become more pronounced, the monarchy will need to modernize and one wonders how long it can last.

Things looking up in Africa's potential powerhouse? This Time Magazine article suggests they are as Nigeria prepares for presidential, parliamentary and regional elections later this month. Bedeviled by massive corruption, conflict and regional, religious and ethnic divisions, Africa's most populous nation and oil giant has never risen to its potential. The article makes the case that a turn in fortune for the better in Lagos, the former capital and megacity of over 20 million, might signify an improvement for the nation, though it's still kind of a stretch.

The deck of this article below the headline says it all. As Japan recovers from its devastating natural disasters and civil war continues in Libya, West Africa, specifically the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire) is on the brink of civil war itself. The tensions stem from the results of last November's presidential elections, in which the incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo declared his victory despite supposedly losing. The alleged winner, opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, has continued his claim for the presidency and forces loyal to him have started fighting with Gbagbo's troops. The nation endured a savage civil war, one of several in West Africa at that time, during the earlier part of the last decade and hasn't really recovered from it. If war was to break out again, it would be devastating and would require intervention from West African, African or even the international community.

Arab protests in Libya

The upheavals in the Arab world have spread to Libya, with little signs of slowing down. Libya's Muammar Gaddhafi has lived up to his previously fading mad dictator reputation by having his forces gun down almost 100 protesters, the most violent state reaction in all the countries that have seen people protests against their leaders. It seems fitting that Libya should have mass protests because for far too long, Gaddhafi has stayed in power, even if he's mellowed a bit recently, and made his country a pariah. He is also one of the few, or only, African dictators in power. Bahrain, a tiny, oil-rich country in the Gulf coast, has also experienced street protests against an unpopular government, with a handful of protesters having been killed so far.

What's up with China's relationship and role in Africa? Well, it's growing and going beyond just business, as this post and its assorted links have a more nuanced take on this issue. Going beyond the usual cries of China as a new colonizer, the linked articles, specifically a detailed report by an NGO, emphasize African nations must take more responsibility on their own part to be more accountable and assertive.

No surprise happened with the South Sudan secession vote. The South is poised to break away from Sudan as most of the votes counted overwhelmingly indicate a desire for independence. There will be a lot of challenges and while euphoria might be felt now, one wonders how most people in that region will feel later on down the line, after formal independence begins in July.

The Southern Sudan referendum has gotten underway and it is highly likely that the world will see a new nation this year. There may have been a few hiccups but that doesn't seem to be hindering many people in this war-weary and undeveloped, not even underdeveloped, region.

A new nation may be born soon in Africa. The Southern part of Sudan will vote in a referendum between Jan 9 and 15 whether to split from Sudan and form a new nation or stay with Sudan. CNN has an extensive article that details the current situation, the historical background, and challenges.
If the area chooses independence, it will be a precarious state of affairs.

To prove that there's always no shortage of interesting little conflicts around the world that most of us don't really know about, here's a good description of the problem in Western Sahara, a territory in North Africa that has been occupied by neighboring Morocco since 1975. While the main focus is on yet another revelation by WikiLeaks about US international affairs, this post gives a decent overview of what basically amounts to colonization, something the writer says in the 2nd to last paragraph. Morocco is ironically one of the more liberal and stable Muslim and North Africa states, unlike sketchy Libya or Egypt or Saudi Arabia, yet what its actions in the Western Sahara go beyond what any of those other states have done.

Former NY Times foreign correspondent Howard French writes a sad commentary on the decline of the Ivory Coast (Cote d'Ivoire). The beleaguered West African country, known for being Dider Drogba's homeland, cocoa and a civil war that raged through the 90s, was in the news recently for its electoral problems. Defeated incumbent Laurent Gbagbo refused to accept his loss in the presidential election and claims the results are void. What is especially noteworthy in French's article is his comparison between Ivory Coast and Asian countries, which in the past actually favored the African country. It is hard to believe now that back in the 60s and 70s, West African countries like Ivory Coast were wealthier than China and Malaysia and even South Korea in terms of GDP per capita. While those Asian countries have gone on and become richer and more modern, countries like Ivory Coast seem to have regressed. Still, the instant and critical response of West African and African bodies, as well as the US, to the current power-grab is a sign of hope.

UNESCO seems to have come to its sense with this move, but they shouldn't have had a prize named after this dictator in the first place. Equatorial Guinea's leader Obiang has had a lot of human rights abuses happen under his reign, as quite a few non-fiction books on Africa have mentioned him in detail. Would they let Saddam Hussein or Robert Mugabe fund prizes?

The Democratic Republic of Congo has seen a lot of tragedy since what seems like ... forever, and the bad news doesn't seem to cease. Mass rapes has been in the Western limelight recently, but it remains to be seen what action will be taken. It's been deemed as a weapon of war, which seems to be quite obvious, and the sad thing is these aren't new.

The notorious Lord's Resistance Army, the rebel group run by a crazed "Christian" lunatic who kidnaps children as soldiers and sex slaves in Uganda, may be down but it's not out. Unfortunately its dispersed forces have spread to surrounding countries, including Southern Sudan. This area will go to the polls in a referendum to determine whether they'll secede from Sudan and form a new nation. Incidentally, US President Barack Obama warned Sudan's leaders Friday to let the process go along smoothly. Instability and poverty are the main problems, and the first factor is why the LRA can affect proceedings.

Thought to be on the decline, the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda has killed about 2,500 people and abducted almost 700 children in the past 18 months, recently-released human rights reports have highlighted. Some interesting possible scenarios are mentioned, such as the US lending intelligence support, having an international or regional armed force go after LRA leader Joseph Kony and that the LRA might be looking for support from Sudan. Also interesting is the theory that the LRA continues to kill and terrorize civilians simply to maintain itself, "as a way to socialize and indoctrinate their soldiers." The LRA is a brutal rebel group and with not even a pretense of any ideological or territorial goals but killing and kidnapping children, the sooner regional authorities can cooperate to wipe them out, the better.

Ghana might be in store for some better times, economically speaking, as production of a large offshore oil field is set to start in 6 months' time but already there are some worrying signs ("illicit capital flight") that the oil bonanza may not benefit the nation as much as expected as the LRB blog post linked above talks about possibly shady offshore ownership.

After all the fears and worries, the World Cup will soon start in South Africa. In a rather upbeat article, the BBC looks at how Africa managed to finally get this World Cup.

This Foreign Policy article makes a controversial argument that Africa's wars
are unstoppable, because they're not about fighting for freedom or against oppression anymore, but only for plunder, women and territory. Gone are the great rebel leaders of the past such as southern Sudan's John Garang and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni, instead there are only rapacious and vicious warlords such as the LRA's Joseph Kony in Uganda whose supposedly Christian militia has indulged in rape, child capture and mutilation. The article is compelling though it has a sort of simplistic and sensationalistic style.

Is this world full of war? This photo essay from Foreign Policy magazine shows that
this is an affirmative, at least for 33 places. The usual suspects, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, the DR Congo, formerly Zaire, and the Central Caucasus are covered, but others like Thailand and Nepal make the cut as well. Insurgencies in Iran and India Kashmir are also included. On the other hand, it is surprising to see Peru and Northern Ireland mentioned, which though they have had long-running civil conflicts, seem to be undergoing periods of relative peace.
There are a lot of stunning pictures, see photo 17, and the captions provide brief but detailed info.

The country of Niger, located in West Africa, suffered a coup last Thursday that removed the country's president Mamadou Tandja from power. The overthrow was conducted by military officers and is seen as a favorable event by some in the country, including by an opposition leader. This is mainly due to Tandja's changing of constitutional rules to allow him to serve beyond his legal term limit. This audacious move even led to condemnation from its fellow West African nations as it was suspended from Ecowas (Economic Community Of West African States).
It remains to be seen how the military junta that has taken over will react in the coming days and months.

Newsweek has an interview with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who now serves as the U.N. special envoy to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It's not too long but one of the best remarks is when Obasanjo is asked on China's "colonization" of Africa. First he directly criticizes the use of the term, then he says "We regard America and Europe as old friends. We keep old friends but we make new friends in Japan, India, and China."
New friends and old friends indeed. A rather smart way of describing relations with the West and Asia in a positive manner without showing any preference, if you ask me.